"The GOP Tax Bill Is Worse Than You Think" by Alex Kotch

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Here is some updated data and analysis of the GOP Tax Bill. It is tilted more towards the rich than we think and its true cost (to our children) is much higher than claimed by the GOP.

Here are tax cut numbers for 2019. All income brackets, on average, get a tax cut. Nice. But it is heavily tilted towards upper income brackets.

18 Dec

Lily Batchelder@lilybatch

New JCT estimates of conference agreement: Whether you look at near term or long run, tax bill is extremely regressive.

Would be even more so if look just at change in tax liabilities (as opposed to pre-tax income) and include estate tax effects. 1/4 pic.twitter.com/LJEz8BDVij

Lily Batchelder@lilybatch

In 2019, JCT estimates that average income boost for millionaires is more than 3X that for family earning $40-50K. 2/4 pic.twitter.com/ZWJcvZMA7q

7:06 PM - Dec 18, 2017

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Here are tax cut numbers for 2027. Lower and middle income earners get a haircut, the ultra-rich get a nice tax-cut. And our children are saddled with a 1.5 to 3.0 trillion dollar deficit.

18 Dec

Lily Batchelder@lilybatch

Replying to @lilybatch

In 2019, JCT estimates that average income boost for millionaires is more than 3X that for family earning $40-50K. 2/4 pic.twitter.com/ZWJcvZMA7q

Lily Batchelder@lilybatch

In 2027, JCT estimates that all income groups earning less than $75,000 are worse off on average under conference agreement. 3/4 pic.twitter.com/Sv6ShIwJBW

7:06 PM - Dec 18, 2017

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The true cost of the bill is masked by sun-setting all sorts of tax changes. If these policies were not sunset and the interest on the extra deficit was taken into account, then the deficit would balloon by 2 trillion dollars, even with dynamic scoring. IMHO, the deficit will be even higher since many of the revenue generators from business tax “reform” will not fully materialize. Also, keep in mind, that the deficit number is in addition to the estimated $10T ten-year deficit under current tax law. 

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Tyler Evilsizer@TylerEvilsizer

ICYMI: @BudgetHawks estimate of the final tax bill. It contains up to $725 billion worth of gimmicks, enough to increase the bill's cost by almost 50% to $2.2 trillionhttp://www.crfb.org/blogs/final-tax-bill-could-end-costing-22-trillion …

2:39 PM - Dec 18, 2017

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The  #CorkerKickback -

Nancy Pelosi

✔@NancyPelosi

The #CorkerKickback is just another example of how the #GOPTaxScam is a Frankenstein’s monster of giveaways to special interests – and a reminder of why @SpeakerRyan & @SenateMajLdr are trying so hard to pass this bill before the public learns even more. https://goo.gl/nim6GV 

1:58 PM - Dec 18, 2017

Pelosi Statement on ‘Corker Kickback’ in GOP Tax Scam - Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi

Washington, D.C. – Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi released the following statement on the so-called “Corker Kickback” in the final GOP tax scam legislation:

democraticleader.gov

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Corker defending the  #CorkerKickback by attacking Democrats — that’s what Republicans do.

Senator Bob Corker

✔@SenBobCorker

“The real lesson of the kick at Bob Corker is how terrified the left is of a bill that could be a popular tax cut that helps the economy and lifts incomes.” http://on.wsj.com/2CB58lM 

10:32 PM - Dec 18, 2017

Kicking Bob Corker

The press gives him the Beltway Skinner Box treatment.

wsj.com

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Naked corruption at the highest levels.

David Sirota

✔@davidsirota

NEW REPORT: Here's a detailed list of every Republican senator who stands to be personally enriched by the real-estate provision slipped into the final bill by Sen. Orrin Hatch. It includes Hatch, and 13 other GOP senators. Enjoy. http://www.ibtimes.com/political-capital/republican-senators-will-save-millions-special-real-estate-tax-break-2630037 …

7:29 PM - Dec 18, 2017

Republican Senators Will Save Millions With Special Real-Estate Tax Break

The tax bill that comes to the Senate floor this week includes a special real-estate tax cut. Here are the 14 GOP senators who could be personally enriched by the provision.

ibtimes.com

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Alex Kotch

✔@alexkotch

GOP Senators who'll make money from their own tax bill:

Bob Corker—TN
Steve Daines—MT
Lamar Alexander—TN
Ron Johnson—WI
Rob Portman—OH
James Risch—ID
Jim Inhofe—OK
John Kennedy—LA
Johnny Isakson—GA
John Barrasso—WY
Luther Strange—AL
Rand Paul—KY
Orrin Hatch—UT
John Hoeven—ND https://twitter.com/davidsirota/status/942914794058792960 …

12:06 AM - Dec 19, 2017

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No, the tax-cut for corporations and the ultra-rich does not grow the economy as much as is claimed.

Paul Krugman

✔@paulkrugman

Even the Tax Foundation, which has been hugely (and implausibly) bullish on tax cuts, is now predicting less than 0.2% per year additional growth from the #TaxScam https://taxfoundation.org/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-preliminary-analysis/ …

8:04 AM - Dec 18, 2017

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Preliminary Economic Analysis - Tax Foundation

The Taxes and Growth Model shows that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would boost GDP by 1.7 percent over 10 years and cost $448 billion on a dynamic basis.

taxfoundation.org

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Rage, rage against the Tax heist -

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Tax March

✔@taxmarch

This fight is not over. 

Light up the phone lines. 

Let's put a STOP to this Republican tax scam:
(888) 654-1854 #NotOnePenny

10:41 AM - Dec 18, 2017

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"Does Mueller Have A Doomsday Machine?" ~ by Blue Tsunami

  Trump’s flat denial that he is considering ways to get rid of Special Counsel Mueller is about as believable as an NFL owner proclaiming full confidence in his winless head coach.  You know it’s the kiss of death.

   So, allow me to speculate and talk about Saturday Night Massacres.  We now know that Mueller’s investigators have been pouring over thousands of emails from the Trump Transition Team since early September.  Those emails put several folks in Trump’s circle in the barrel and widened the cast of characters in this mystery considerably...to include several Republican congress members.   Trump will also get the bad news this week that Mueller’s investigation will drag on well into 2018.  And,  Faux Noos has the president drooling for a confrontation.   The perfect shit storm.  

   So, I’m speculating that Mueller sees all this and is building a firewall, a sort of “doomsday machine” to be activated in case Trump goes SNM.  Mueller has a full set of prosecutorial tools and the experience to use them to his advantage.   Sealed indictments for instance.  Sealed indictments would be a spectacular way to “reach out from the grave.”  Who knows how many transition staffers have already cracked under questioning or perjured themselves based on evidence those emails provided?  What have Michael  Flynn and George Papadapolos and perhaps James Comey been telling the grand jury?  What parts of the Steele Dossier have investigators been able to confirm?  Mueller has the answers to those questions and many more.  He also has the savvy needed to play a winning hand correctly even if his opponent throws the table over and tries to end the game.

"Preschool twins take a stand against descrimination"

 Said Jia’s mother Ashley, “Their ability to look past their skin color can be attributed to the fact that we live in a diverse neighborhood.

 I think that’s one of the nice things about growing up in a multicultural, melting pot city. They don’t see color. We’ve never talked to them about it, period."

 Added Zuri’s mother Valencia, “You’re happy ... and then you become sad … because they have to grow up. And society takes over.”

 Alas.

Major Depressive Disorder May Be Linked to Early Childhood Stress

OCTOBER 11, 2017

Dava Stewart

Strong evidence purposes interactions between early life stress and FKBP5 genotypes could lead to significant risk of developing major depressive disorder (MDD) or post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), according to the results of a recent systematic review and meta-analysis of the existing literature.

“The present study provides a comprehensive evaluation whether FKBP5 gene, which is a critical regulator of stress activity axis in the brain, confers a genetic risk factor for PTSD and MDD in the event of early life adversity,” Yogesh Dwivedi, PhD, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Neurobiology, University of Alabama in Birmingham, and co-author of the review and analysis said. “This is very important given that these 2 disorders are impacted heavily on early life stress.”

Previous research has shown evidence of early childhood stresses such as abuse, parental death or divorce and neglect is strongly associated with the development of MDD, PTSD, and a higher risk of suicide.

The authors write that while prior research investigated the effects of FKBP5 variants in relation to MDD, PTSD, and other disorders, there is currently no systematic review and meta-analysis examining whether variants of FKBP5 actually increase the risk of stress-related disorders.

The research team examined specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and included studies that included FKBP5 rs1360780, rs3800373, or rs9470080. The authors write that those particular SNPs were chosen because they were the most frequently studied for gene-environment interaction. A total of 14 studies were identified that fit the criteria.

The meta-analysis revealed that individuals who carry specific alleles for FKBP5 exposed to early-life trauma had high risks for depression or PTSD, and provided strong evidence in support of an interaction between early-life stress and FKBP5 genotype in these disorders.

The results were not especially surprising to the researchers, as they were expecting similar results based on previous studies, however, the meta-analysis confirmed these findings in a large, combined study.

The meta-analysis does have some limitations. For example, the sample size is relatively small, because there was limited data available, additionally, there were some confounding variables that the researchers could not fully exclude, and the 3 SNPs make up a haplotype block which is associated with several susceptible common variants.

“In the future, some potential and causative functional mutation or allele needs to be identified with fine mapping or targeted sequence analysis,” write the authors.

In describing the next steps of this research, Dwivedi says the team is working toward being able to use the 3 SNPs as biomarkers to predict stress-related disorders. Such a breakthrough would be a great stride toward the goal of providing individualized treatment.

“Personalized medicine is becoming reality in treating many disorders,” says Dwivedi. “Psychiatric disorders are no exception. Thus, finding genetic basis of these disorders may help diagnose and treat patients effectively.”

The full review and meta-analysis, titled “Interaction between early-life stress and FKBP5 gene variants in major depressive disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis,”  can be found in the Journal of Affective Disorders.

Greatest Drummers of All Time

https://www.thetoptens.com/drummers/

Snow Patrol - Chasing Cars

Well, okay, it's NO secret.  I LOVE music...LOVE...LOVE...LOVE!

When I was in my younger years, I remember so many doing weed, and other drugs. Not this girl!  Music did it all the way!  First, it was free, always accessible, and reverberated in my brain.  Even NOW in my winter years, it has the same effect. So, if you don't like music, this is not the blog for you!  Oh, sure, I love all kinds, but this is what speaks to me to rev up spirit in one way or another.

While I played piano the longest, I also had a lingering, light love affair with the guitar.  My former husband and I fell in love with Ludwig drums, and for awhile our house was rocking! Drums are now my "drug of choice". At a certain time in my life, all the instruments "went away", due to varying circumstances. I was somewhat empty for a bit, but finally figured out how to make the best of that, and music once again beat in my heart, mind and space! I especially love Brit performers, and Italian opera!

Oh, and don't forget Ed Sheeran!
England’s Ed Sheeran rocketed to stardom on the strength of hit singles such as 2010’s “The A Team” and 2014’s Grammy-winning “Thinking Out Loud.” Redheaded and boyish, Sheeran also showed a facility for having celebrity friends, from Elton John and Jamie Foxx to Pharrell Williams and Taylor Swift. A singer/songwriter who left school to pursue his dream, Sheeran began recording in 2005, and in 2008 moved to London to try for stardom. It worked out. A prolific songwriter with a penchant for R&B influenced pop and sentimental ballads, his first hit, “The A Team,” was nominated for a Grammy as song of the year, and his first album went to the top of the charts in the U.K. and the U.S. His second album, x, won 2014’s Brit Award for album of the year, and was nominated for a 2015 Grammy as album of the year. He’s written songs for off-stage friend Taylor Swift, as well as for One Direction and Christina Aguilera. His other songs include “Don’t,” “Bloodstream” and “Sing.”

Adele - When We Were Young (Live at The Church Studios) ~ For J.J.C.

Adele - When We Were Young (Live at The Church Studios) ~ For J.J.C.

Everybody loves the things you do
From the way you talk
To the way you move
Everybody here is watching you
'Cause you feel like home
You're like a dream come true
But if by chance you're here alone
Can I have a moment
Before I go?
'Cause I've been by myself all night long
Hoping you're someone I used to know

You look like a movie
You sound like a song
My God, this reminds me
Of when we were young

Let me photograph you in this light
In case it is the last time
That we might be exactly like we were
Before we realized
We were sad of getting old
It made us restless
It was just like a movie
It was just like a song

I was so scared to face my fears
Nobody told me that you'd be here
And I swore you moved overseas
That's what you said, when you left me

You still look like a movie
You still sound like a song
My God, this reminds me
Of when we were young

Let me photograph you in this light
In case it is the last time
That we might be exactly like we were
Before we realized
We were sad of getting old
It made us restless
It was just like a movie
It was just like a song

When we were young
When we were young
When we were young
When we were young

It's hard to win me back
Everything just takes me back
To when you were there
To when you were there
And a part of me keeps holding on
Just in case it hasn't gone
I guess I still care
Do you still care?

It was just like a movie
It was just like a song
My God, this reminds me
Of when we were young

When we were young
When we were young
When we were young
When we were young

Let me photograph you in this light
In case it is the last time
That we might be exactly like we were
Before we realized
We were sad of getting old
It made us restless
Oh, I'm so mad I'm getting old

It makes me reckless
It was just like a movie
It was just like a song
When we were young

Ed Sheeran - "Perfect" (Official Music Video)-Thanksgiving Memories

   For Gary, Keith and John ... three old boyfriends, whom I will simply love forever, and especially everytime it snows, or I talk about Lake Placid, or the Poconos, laughter and giggling, cozy warmth, and "Frozen"! All of you made me laugh the very deepest of my laughter....I remember that to this very minute.  We were "just kids" then! We had such crazy, incredible fun! One story after another passes through my mind, and I realize I am sitting here with the biggest grin on my face, and with tears in my eyes, and on my cheeks. Gary is not with us.... but in my belief system he can go right into my heart, and know exactly the words I struggle for. Some days, when I wake up - times he comes into my dreams I am so sad he, and all of us, aren't right there together again!
   Some of my most treasured youthful memories of you are like icy, shiny and glittery silver threads woven into the fabric  (!joy!) of my life. On this Thanksgiving day, you flood my very best memories. There is such profound thankfulness that it almost makes my heart burst! This video just fits, too - snowballs, dancing in the snow, snow angels, frozen wet wool socks, unending laughter echoing in the valley, strong passionate loving !
   Thank you for these solid, young-ish memories, and who you each were as men. There were special stars over my meeting each of you at different times.  Each of you always called me "angel". Of course, I was not .... but each of you brought me to my core and inspired my womanhood........and inspired my loving into the future. And, wow, did I love to hear you say it! Just exhilarating joy!

On my very much later honeymoon, I had forgotten most of what I learned in that icy snow with you guys. Or at least I thought I had.  It took me a more time to realize I had not at all forgotten my essence. Even starting over, I felt more carefree about it!  I think it was because of your support and memories.
Watching this video takes me back to you all...and puts tear in my eyes!!! I am so grateful that I lived this long to realize all that ... aging is imperfect physically at times, but it is simply stellar ... remembering everything ... side by side.  The heart breaking moments are all right beside all the best moments of my life....well, actually they all break hearts, just in different ways!

(Thanks SO much for the call when you had seen this, John!  That was an extra added delight!! "Just dive right in, and follow my lead" ... I gulped, kiddo!)

Ed Sheeran "Supermarket Flowers" ~ Thankgiving for Moms

I took the supermarket flowers from the windowsill
I threw the day old tea from the cup
Packed up the photo album Matthew had made
Memories of a life that's been loved
Took the get well soon cards and stuffed animals
Poured the old ginger beer down the sink
Dad always told me, "don't you cry when you're down"
But mum, there's a tear every time that I blink

Oh I'm in pieces, it's tearing me up, but I know
A heart that's broke is a heart that's been loved

So I'll sing Hallelujah
You were an angel in the shape of my mum
When I fell down you'd be there holding me up
Spread your wings as you go
And when God takes you back we'll say Hallelujah
You're home

I fluffed the pillows, made the beds, stacked the chairs up
Folded your nightgowns neatly in a case
John says he'd drive then put his hand on my cheek
And wiped a tear from the side of my face

I hope that I see the world as you did cause I know
A life with love is a life that's been lived

So I'll sing Hallelujah
You were an angel in the shape of my mum
When I fell down you'd be there holding me up
Spread your wings as you go
And when God takes you back we'll say Hallelujah
You're home

Hallelujah
You were an angel in the shape of my mum
You got to see the person that I have become
Spread your wing
And I know that when God took you back he said Hallelujah
You're home